Description

WHEN TO BET SHOW  

Most players, other than race statisticians, never heard of the term- Effective Takeout. This is the amount of each dollar wagered that you can expect to lose in a given situation. For all win bets, for instance the Effective Takeout is approximately 22 cents per dollar wagered. How does this number effect handicappers?  It does if you bet favorites!

The Effective Takeout (ET) for favorites to win is about 18%. As could be expected, this number is better than win betting in general, about 4% better. But get this, the ET for favorites to show is only 10%.

It follows with this ET analysis, the handicapper is better off betting favorites to show than to win. The closeness to profitability becomes 8% better by changing the bet type from win to show!

Betting favorites-to-show rather than to win is what is called an “edge window” in thoroughbred wagering. By definition, these are situations where the distance to profitability is significantly smaller than the average, like in the win/show comparison above.

By utilizing the “edge window” situation of betting favorites to show rather than to win, you will always be playing at a distinct mathematical “edge” over the uninformed competition.